“Leap” – your adversary is losing and starts “jumping” from one point to another
“Pile” – your adversary “piles up” problems, tries to provoke a chaotic discussion or stop negotiations
“Empty chair” – a day or two before negotiations start your adversary informs you that he’s not ready yet, trying to press you (or he wants to change location)
“Diplomatic illness” – the practice of feigning illness to avoid participation in negotiations and at the same time to avoid giving formal offense.
“Deaf” – your adversary keeps asking questions instead of answering yours
“Provocation” – your adversary doubts your team’s professional level and your ability to negotiate. Don’t go crazy.
“Busy guy” – your adversary breaks negotiation for an hour or two pretending he has to do some very important business (or that he got a very important call).
“Mirror” – it’s a “programming” trick. The technology is simple: you try to “mirror” your adversary’s style and behavior, adopt a similar posture, use his gestures, and follow the speed of his speech. First, he will like it subconsciously and will be more open to you. Second, you’ll understand better his way of thinking.
“Sandwich” – pressure (often – military) – negotiations – pressure
“Show” – using certain arguments your adversary appeals to your emotions
“Circle” – a very sophisticated trick: your adversary tries to “push” his proposal in different variants and finally comes back to his initial variant, trying to convince you that’s the best choice
“Carrot and stick” – threat (blackmail) plus promises (money). The guy could blackmail you also by demanding to set a deadline
“Student” – your adversary talks too much about the details, asking a lot of minor questions, trying to make you nervous and make mistakes
“Donkey” – your adversary declines the offer to speak first
“Ball” – encourage your adversary if he’s looking for “global decisions” and he’ll do a lot of minor favors
“Rubber” – delay, if you can’t predict the result, and press your adversary by delaying the answer
“Last train” – you can press your adversary by an ultimatum right before negotiations are over, if he really is interested in some result. “Spice” the ultimatum with some important reasons and give your adversary a choice of variants.
You can also leak opposing demands to the media (be careful with this one. Do not betray diplomatic trust by talking about secret deals or demands that actually have been mentioned). You may also escalate your demands during negotiation and manipulate public opinion to line up behind your demands.
1. Write a plan.
2. Define your objectives.
3. Identify issues that are open to compromise and those that are not.
4. Conduct research for information to support your objectives and have information to undermine your partner’s position; think what information is available to your partner (State and Defense Departments will help you with that; not the CIA).
5. Find out how your partner negotiates with other leaders (he might have a “rabbit in a hat” for you).
6. Consult with members of a previous negotiating team about his style, strong and weak points.
7. Check the current balance of power. Attention: if you start multilateral negotiation you have to know what are the conflicts or allegiances between other partners. If they are divided into groups, identify who has the power to make a decision on behalf of a group.
8. Use game theory if you are intending to cooperate. Game theory is a theoretical analysis of the decision-making process taken by two or more players who are in conflict. You must actually estimate any possible strategies of the players who have to make decisions without knowledge of what other players are planning. Each player’s strategy, once undertaken, will affect the others. Game theory is often illustrated by the “prisoners dilemma” paradigm. It supposes that two men have been arrested on a suspicion of committing a crime together and are being held in separate cells. There is not enough evidence to prosecute unless one confesses and implicates the other. Both of them know this but cannot talk to each other. The dilemma is that the best outcome, not being convicted, is only available if they each trust the other not to implicate him. If X decides to trust Y, but Y fears X may not be trustworthy, Y may confess to get a lesser sentence; X then gets a worse one. The best solution to this dilemma is for both to cooperate, to minimize the worst that can happen, rather than trying for the outcome that is maximum. This is called the minimax strategy and it’s classified as being the most probable outcome.
II. Conducting negotiations
Never conduct negotiations before 10 a. m. or after 4 p. m.
First of all, you have to decide whether you want to speak first or to respond to your partner’s proposal. There’s an advantage in letting your partner make the opening proposal as it might be much more beneficial for you than you suspect.
a) put forward a proposal (with as little emotion as possible). You have to make your initial offer-demand high and compromise from that point onward. Your partner will understand perfectly well it’s too much, so make your initial demand greater than you expect to receive, and offer less than you are expected to give. (For the same reason feel free to reject the first proposal received. ) While talking further, leave yourself room for maneuvering, presenting your proposals, and don’t try to pin down your partner to a fixed position too soon, because he needs room to maneuver, too. Make a final offer when the atmosphere is most cooperative.
b) respond to proposals in a smart way (again, no emotions). Never take the first offer – if you take it, your adversary may feel there is something wrong with it or he didn’t get the best deal. Capture any similarities on both sides. Don’t hesitate to make conditional counter-offers: “If you do this, we’ll do that. ” Cut the unexpected introduction of new issues and follow strictly a concise step-by-step agenda. Probe your partner’s attitudes: “What would you say if we both lower our demands? ” but indicate that every concession you make is a major loss to you. Ask as many questions as you want – the more information you have, the more you control negotiation. To think over and re-design your strategy, ask for a break as many times as it’s acceptable. Summarize your partner’s proposals.
c) move towards a bargain. You must know perfectly well the response to each of your points before you open your mouth. If your aides can’t help you, you have the wrong aides and you even might be a wrong president. Offer the lowest price first, as you may not need to go any further. Negotiate a “package, ” don’t concentrate on one demand and link other, smaller demands to it. While making a final offer look at the other party and check the body language (see below), your team members must confirm by body language that this is your final offer. It’s OK to press the partner by emphasizing the need to reach agreement, like: “We know our nations are waiting to see the treaty signed. ” (If your partner looks at his watch, it means he wants to end the talk. ) If you see you are approaching a dead end, ask your partner to talk off the record, in private, but if you talk in private, you have to keep your word no matter what.
Sometimes negotiations (as in the Israel-Palestine case) run into serious problems and breakdowns. Strong diplomats never say “never” and never leave forever, and always are ready to come back and agree right away on new dates to continue talks, as though a breakdown is just one more pressure trick. The best thing to do is to re-establish communications as soon as possible and you have to do this through your team member who has good connections and influence with other party. Act fast, especially if the consequences of “no deal” would be worse than the last deal that was on the table. If the situation is not improving, you have nothing else but to use a mediator. I do not recommend you to take responsibility as mediator or to use a mediator for your diplomatic needs. International experience shows that these old and “experienced” people usually make the situation worse, like bringing in a lawyer — even if the situation looks better for the next couple of years. But if you have no choice and your partner, and your aides insist on using a mediator to resolve the situation you have to think it over … and agree.
Mediation is the process in which deadlocked parties consider the suggestions of a third party, agreed upon in advance, but are not bound to accept the mediator’s recommendations. The mediator works as a referee between the negotiating parties and tries to find common ground among their agendas. Once some common ground is established, the mediator can begin to look for mutually acceptable ways out of the deadlock. A mediator between presidents has to be a president himself, very influential, and well informed on the situation to be able to make effective recommendations.
He has to:
a) consider the situation from all angles
b) help both parties to understand each other better
c) help the parties to create new approaches
d) suggest a solution, give alternatives
But if the two sides’ demands are too far apart, no outside party can bring them together at all. ( Often a mediator has to make multiple trips between two parties, who do not talk directly, and it’s called shuttle diplomacy. Usually, two parties do not formally recognize each other, but still want to negotiate. The term became widespread following Henry Kissinger’s term as National Security Adviser and then, as the United States Secretary of State (in 1973-1977), when he participated in shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East and China).
III. Closing negotiation
That’s the most important part, a final mutual agreement or disagreement, a test for your foreign policy making strategy and tactics and personally for you, your power and your image. Any treaty you sign with foreign leaders, if it meets American interests, is not your personal success, but that of the nation. There are three options:
a) the agreement with all conditions is acceptable to both parties
b) the agreement is acceptable to one party only
c) the agreement is unacceptable for both parties
Diplomatic Double Talk
We are disappointed. We got nothing.
Situation disturbs us. It’s unacceptable.
There are still differences between There are huge differences.
We can’t accept this deal. This means trouble.
We reserve the right to use any means
to prevent further worsening of the situation. This means war.
Discussion helped us to understand each
other better. We’ve wasted our time.
We don’t understand your attitude. Stop it immediately.
I’m trying to understand your position. Understand me too, idiot!
If I’ve understood you correctly, you don’t agree. Do you have any other option?
We’ll pay a very high price if we don’t
reach agreement. Yes, that’s a threat!
Chapter 5. Espionage management
1. No mercy, no ideology, no emotions.
2. Intuition is nothing but the ability to watch and analyze.
3. No evidence is evidence in itself.
4. Distrust is a mother of security.
5. Never look as if you are sizing up the person – that’s a sign that gives away cops and spies.
6. Don’t start first if you don’t know the rules.
7. The way you act is the way you think – behavior is a system of codes (information) which could be calculated by the enemy. Watch your face – that’s a shop window.
8. Think fast, talk slow.
9. Avoid self-programming and never think bad about yourself.
10. Don’t smoke, drink or take drugs if it’s not necessary; spare your stomach from very hot or cold food or drinks; avoid too much noise and light.
11. Don’t be shy to lie – the more you lie the more people respect you.
12. Let people talk out and “empty their brains” – then load your information.
13. People never change – everybody wants to get pleasure and avoid pain.
14. “He knew too much” means “He talked too much. ”
15. Never ask extra questions – wait. Wait and the object will get used to you and open himself – nobody can stay tense for long.
16. Lonely people live longer in espionage business.
17. “No exit” situation is the one you don’t like or don’t understand.
– personal enemies (they fix negative information on you)
– silent types (they notice and think too much)
– other professionals (they’ll blow your identity)
– extra stress (it damages your heart and blood vessels and that kills your brain and your ability to think )
– talking too much
19. The best weapon against your enemy is his enemy.
20. “I want nothing” means “I want everything”.
21. Small lie gives birth to big distrust.
How to run assets
You can get tons of information through technical devices but no device can influence decisions made by leaders of other countries. That’s why for thousands of years to come, a reliable agent will be the top tool of any special service, and their actual names have to be kept secret forever, please. A VIP agent (a top government employee) is a very rare thing and depends hugely on luck, because he can make or influence big political decisions. If he has access to the Oval Office, he can change the President’s plans and strategy, and can sabotage political, economic or military actions. When major presidential initiatives fail, time after time, one might wonder who is sabotaging whom.
The most important thing a secret source can get is a reliable information on any possible attempt on the US President’s life, or concerning a decision of a foreign government to start a war against the United States. A professional agent is actually is both an instrument (to get information) and a weapon (to influence or neutralize people).
A. "Garbage" (60%), the "no trust " category.
Recruitment is #1 priority for the officer and a part of his working plan and very often he has to recruit people who are not born agents. You can work with a nice guy, teach him, pay him, press him — and he still avoids any cooperation (busy, sick, on vacation, etc. ). It’s hard to get rid of him because, first, you have to explain to your superiors why you recruited garbage and second, there’s a rule: if you want to be very smart and innovative, a reformer, who came here to start intelligence revolution and get rid of a passive agent, recruit an active one first. Also, agents who work under pressure (blackmail) sooner or later slide into this category.
B. Good agents (30%), middle category. They adhere to the rules of discipline and keep the schedule (that’s very important even if there’s no information), deliver a lot of information that you have to verify through other sources, but don’t show much initiative. Used for regular espionage: go and talk to the object, copy documents, make a recording, take pictures, listen, watch. You can trust them and check often, anyway.
C. Born agents (10%). You are very lucky if you can recruit such people. They betray their country with pleasure and sometimes do not even ask for money because it’s in their character — they are looking for adventure or are not happy with their personal or professional life and seek improvement or revenge. They take risks, have good analytical abilities, good education, make (VIP) connections easily, "crack" any object, play the "good guy" whom you can trust. Sometimes they come to you as volunteers, and if they bring valuable stuff – recruit them
Special category. Women.
Women are a special category here, as elsewhere, and the rule is: if you can’t recruit a real agent, you recruit a woman. It’s not professional to recruit a woman for a serious operation, but if you want to get to an important object, a woman can introduce you. OK, you can recruit a US Senator’s secretary or a typist from the Pentagon, but it will be on your conscience if she gets caught. Such cases entail a life sentence, usually — how would you feel? Besides, women often fall in love with their objects and tell them everything. Finally, a married woman is much bigger problem than a married man.
Recruit a small number of well-informed people. Do not recruit:
– volunteers (unless it’s a "mole" or other government employee who brings you top secret information right away. In a counter-intelligence set-up, a "volunteer" will try to get information about you, telling the minimum about himself. )
– persons with low educational and intellectual level
– people under 30 or over 70, unless it’s a VIP. (Did someone get Jim Baker? Dick Cheney? )
– mafia members
– people who are happy with their lives and careers
The best formula when you recruit is a mix of money and ideology (brainwashing). It’s not necessary to sign recruitment obligations — people take that as a blackmail tool. It’s enough if the fellow brings a good piece of information and get paid (make a video, anyway).
Priority recruitment candidates in the USA:
The White House staff
The Cabinet and federal agencies
The US Congress
Big scientific institutions
VIP world (celebrities – big media, show biz, big sport)
Candidates for recruitment
1. All spies who work in the USA under legal "cover" as diplomats, reporters, scientists, businessmen, actors, artists, musicians, sportsmen have the legal right to make and develop any contacts and invite people to private parties; then they "transfer" these contacts to professional recruiters. Any embassy can invite any politician to official and private parties and "work" with him there. Besides, all those people can invite prospective candidates to their countries or to other country to develop the contact; it’s much easier to recruit abroad. And remember, any contact, any talk, any piece of biography is already information.
2. You can get information about candidates through other agents and through the media.
3. It’s useful to install listening devices in the government buildings or listen to the phones, and collect compromising information on politicians. I recommend listening to the phones all over the city, if it’s the capital of the country.
1. Do not tell the agent about problems and mistakes of the agency, about your personal problems, about other agents, about his own file and compromising information you have on him.
2. Don’t show him any classified documents – you might provoke him to sell the information to somebody else.
3. Don’t trust your agents too much; they can use you to compromise their personal enemies.
4. Never criticize the source – be an adviser. Don’t talk straight if he avoids cooperation or brings you garbage – just reduce or stop payments, or get rid of him.
5. You lose the agent if you don’t pay him for a job well done, ask him to "produce" fake information (to show your bosses how much great espionage activity you have going on) or if you don’t care about his personal security and his personal problems (health, career). And — never give poison to your agent for security reasons.
Questioning the source
This is of extreme importance – the right question brings you the right answer and top secret info. Give your agent a chance to tell and show you everything he’s brought, no matter how chaotic the story might be or how ordinary the documents look. Don’t make written notices. Don’t bring written questions even if you are talking about some advanced technology — look and be professional. Don’t let the agent analyze the information before he talks to you and don’t let him bring it in a written form – it’s usually not complete; he can lose it; or it may be stolen from him. If there are documents, he has to bring a microfilm. Ask questions — when? where? what happened? why? what’s going to happen next?
After that you tell the story back to him and he adds details. At the end of the meeting give the agent another task and don’t ask him to bring you "something, " because he’ll bring you just that "something" and nothing else.
Remember, questioning is not interrogation; do not bring another officer to the meeting because it will look like cross interrogation.
Teaching the source
Teach your agent to:
– follow security rules while talking to people, working with the documents and especially meeting the officer (some foreign agencies practice open contacts with many people, hoping that the meeting with the agent won’t attract much attention — I don’t recommend that)
– always stay calm in stressful situations
– always keep discipline and come in time
– use analytic abilities working with people and documents – ask yourself as many questions as you can
Checking the source
You can never be sure you are not working with a "double agent, " even if he brings you top secret stuff. Besides, agents are human beings and they make mistakes — they forget about security, spend too much money, talk too much and ask extra questions; if arrested they may not play the hero but will tell everything. Anyway, you can check your source:
a. by fake arrest followed by severe interrogation.
b. through provocation (tell him you know about his "double game" and watch his behavior after the meeting (it’s good to have a listening device or a camera in his house).
c. by making an analysis of all the information and documents he delivers and comparing it with information from other sources.
d. through other agents.
e. through your "mole" in counter-intelligence (if you’re lucky).
f. through technical devices (reading the mail, listening to the phone, secret searching his house and office, watching him through hidden cameras, trying surveillance in the street).
Agent termination (one-way ticket)
It doesn’t happen often but you have to know some special situations when you have to terminate the agent:
1. He knows too much (talks too much) and is ready to betray you.
2. VIP agent (politician) is under suspicion and you can’t help him for political reasons (diplomatic, international scandal, etc. ) — in such a case an accident could be staged. It happens that the agent is too close to President.
3. Agent was involved in special operations (murders) and is dangerous as a witness.
4. Agent is trying to blackmail you.
5. You need to press (blackmail) other agents.
Special Influence Methods
Torture is a category of methods of interrogation designed to shock, hurt and humiliate the object and get information or to make him do something (if used for blackmail). Points to remember:
–ongoing torture decreases pain sensitivity
–people with strong will power take torture as a test
–resistance to torture is often a form of hysterics after arrest
–the object could take himself as a martyr if you torture him too much
–torture could damage object’s psyche and you won’t be able to work with him (that’s why we keep terrorists in Guantanamo Bay without trial – we turn them into idiots)
–people usually trust "after torture information" more than voluntary confessions
–there are different types of torture and professionals often combine them
Techniques of psychological torture include:
– fake execution
– complete isolation ("wall therapy")
– daylight deprivation
– forcible narcotics addiction. Here you can use depressants, stimulants, opiates or hallucinogens : depressants (alcohol, barbiturates, antianxiety drugs
with effects of euphoria, tension reduction,, muscle relaxation, drowsiness; stimulants (cocaine, amphetamine, methamphetamine (crystal meth), with effects of fast
euphoria, exhilaration, high physical and mental energy, reduced appetite, perceptions of power, and sociability; hallucinogens with effects of euphoria, hallucinations, distorted perceptions and sensations
–making the object observe others being tortured (such as family members)
–abuse of object’s national, religious feelings or political views)
The effects of psychological torture are: anxiety, depression, fear, psychosis, difficulty concentrating, communication disabilities, insomnia, impaired memory, headaches, hallucinations, sexual disturbances, destruction of self-image, inability to socialize
Techniques of physical torture include:
–food, water, sleep deprivation
–damage to vital body organs (brain, lungs, kidneys, liver, private parts) plus electric shock. The brain is particularly dependent on a continuous and stable supply of oxygen and glucose.
–water cure ( the torturer pours water down the throat of the subject to inflict the terror of drowning. In another variation, the subject is tied or held don in a chair, his face is covered with a cloth or plastic sheet, and water is poured slowly or quickly over his face to encourage him to talk
The effects of physical torture are: extreme (unbearable) pain, hypertension, fatigue, cardiopulmonary and other disorders, brain atrophy.
2. Special psychology
1. "Brain washing" (implantation of new ideas). The process is: isolation from outside world ("information vacuum") — sleep and food limitation (very effective) — "bombing" with slogans – ideological aggression – achieving the result (brain is loaded). The object is now ready to brainwash newcomers.
2. "Behavior modification" (by placing into a group). The process is: initial contact — introduction to a group — mutual interests — mutual activity–mutual ideas — control and prevention of any negative contacts outside the group. No rush, no pressure.
3. Special psychotherapy methods: talk + drugs + blondes + alcohol (used for recruitment)
Attention: An alcoholic is more impulsive, untrustful and unreliable; he demonstrates a poverty of ideas and incapacity for attention. He usually has serious personality maladjustments. He’s immature, insecure, oversensitive and anxious. Without alcohol he’s unable to meet and enjoy people socially, and suffers from marked feeling of inferiority. Besides, alcoholics suffer from vitamin B1 deficiency, which leads to anatomic changes in the central nervous system and heart with symptoms like anorexia, fatigability, and sleep disturbances. Other common symptoms are irritability, poor memory, inability to concentrate, heart pain.
4. "Transfer" (the object is placed in a regular hospital and then he’s transferred to a mental health clinic or jail). In jail you can use such methods an accelerated work schedule (to exhaust the object), turning him into a number to traumatize his psyche, physical punishment or a threat of punishment to keep the object tense and depressed; senseless labor to destroy his personality. Remember: the lower the intellectual level of the object, the more aggressive he is and more sensitive to incentive or punishment.
You can actually re-organize any object’s behavior by combining rewards and punishments, exposing him to feared situations and teaching him an instinct of a total (political) obedience.
Imprisonment is a very strong (sometimes — ultimate) tool. My friend who spent 10 years in jail described the changes in his behavior like this:
1st year – aggression as self-defense method (to survive)
2nd year – less personal tension, attempts to adapt the mind and body to the new, isolated way of life
3rd, 4th, 5th – gaining some inside status
6th, 7th – life in jail looks like natural routine
10th – euphoria
Used to force a person to do something (or stop the action) against his will; it’s used also for recruitment. Blackmail methods include:
1. Leaking "dirt" on the object through media
2. Creating problems in his personal life and career
3. Straight blackmail (threatening to make public certain compromising facts about him)
4. Placing weapons, drugs, secret documents in object’s house or office, followed by search and arrest
5. Accusations of rape (robbery) (use hookers for that)
6. Blackmail by pressing family members. Careful, object may commit suicide after intense blackmail, especially if he is an intellectual
Shooting, explosives or poison (cyanides, curare). Use a sniper or a "mouse" car (loaded with explosives and parked on the object’s route) if access to the object is impossible because of high security. Anyway, the murder is obvious and investigation is inevitable.
The best thing to do is to recruit or " install" somebody with access to the object’s security system and get information on his schedule (plus health and habits), places where he likes to relax. Try to gain access to his phone.
Then prepare the plan and train three groups: surveillance (with optics and radios), action (includes snipers, explosives technicians or staged accidents specialists), and security (these people neutralize bodyguards, witnesses and other people who could interrupt the action; they complete the action if the action group fails; and they can neutralize the action group later, if planned so; they "cover" the safe retreat of action group and "cut" the chase).
For some operations you can modify the ammunition to make it more deadly – hollow cuts in the tip of the bullets will cause the lead to fragment upon impact, making a huge exit hole. You reach same effect using bullets with a drop of mercury in a hollow tip and you can also coat bullets with arsenic or cyanide. Use depleted, non-radioactive uranium bullets (uranium is much heavier than lead – it can be used to make a bullet with a smaller slug and a larger portion of explosive). Teflon bullets are good because with Teflon’s antifriction characteristics they pierce bullet proof vests.
Staged accidents (suicides, catastrophes, drowning or fall, robbery or rape followed by murder, technical accident (fire, electricity, gas), drugs, weapons, poison, explosives misuse. Also, staged natural death (stroke, heart attack, chronic illness as a result of using special technical devices like irradiation).
" Illegal " spies.
When I talk about “the best, ” I mean the highest intelligence level — illegal spies, intelligence operatives who are secretly deployed abroad and covertly operate there under assumed names and well-documented cover stories, masquerading as native citizens. It′s very important if you get, for example, original birth certificate of American citizen, who died (at young age preferably) or any records and documents on him(birth, wedding, death, any IDs, etc).
The process of training and “penetration” of the officer is rather complex and includes:
a) Special training. Foreign language, general, political and special (espionage and counter-espionage) knowledge of the target country; personal cover story — new biography, special technical devices, recruitment methods). Up to three years.
b) Illegal probation period abroad. A trip abroad through intermediate countries with numerous changes of passports and cover stories, jobs, personal connections. Then he gets to the target country, stays there for another 1-2 years and goes back to his country for additional training and correction of cover story — actually, it’s his first combat assignment. The most important part of this assignment is to check the reliability of the cover story and documents; the cover story has to be reinforced with new and old true facts, like short-term studies at universities or professional training courses).
c) Intermediate legislation. On his way back the officer could stay in an intermediate country for another 1-2 years, make contacts with business, scientists, government employees, celebrities.
d) Basic legislation. Officer comes to the target country, obtains genuine documents, gets a job which allows him to travel and talk to many people, recruit informants thus creating an illegal station.
The illegal is usually supplied with a variety of cover documents to make him “invisible” for counter-intelligence — some are used only to cross the borders on the way to a target country, others — to live there, other documents — only for travel to “third countries” to meet with officers of legal or illegal stations or to be used in case of urgent recall to home country (in that case the illegal is supposed to transit at least two or three countries). His further activity depends on how professional counter-espionage service is working in the country.
He could fail in his mission also because of:
– poor training and low quality documents
– neglecting security rules.
– one mistake in pronunciation can give you away
– treason (traitor-informant or a “mole” inside his own service)
– low personal security level (while working with sources)
If we talk about "legal plants", KGB (and modern Russian SVR) loves to recruit Harvard, Yale and Columbia students and "push" them to the top of American politics – US Congress, the White House, the Cabinet.
Coups, like war, are one of the most violent tools of special services and one could be artificially staged in a target country by “feeding” and “pushing” the political opposition or by using VIP agents in the government. Most coups are “Bureaucratic, ” and entail mainly a change of leader, usually by person #2. That person might be the trigger or might be induced to practice “passive sabotage” and allow certain others to take over. It is also an example of political engineering. Coups usually use the power of the existing government for its own takeover.
Conditions for a successful coup:
–the army is supportive or at least neutral (a coup usually involves control of some active
–portion of the military while neutralizing the remainder of the armed services)
–the leader is out of town (vacation, visit abroad) or is ill
–a political or economic crisis.
–opponents fail to dislodge the plotters, allowing them to consolidate their position, obtain the surrender or acquiescence of the populace, and claim legitimacy
Changing a civilian government to a military one, usually in developing countries.
Conditions: a long-term political and economic crisis that threatens national security and the unity of the country. Military chief(s) eventually let the people elect a civilian president and form a civilian government after “re-construction” of political and economic systems. They usually leave for themselves the right to control further political process.
A good example is the attempt of anti-Nazi officers to assassinate Hitler in a coup. On July 20, 1944, Colonel Claus Schenk von Stauffenberg brought a bomb-laden suitcase into a briefing room where Hitler was holding a meeting. The bomb exploded and several persons were killed. Hitler was wounded, but his life was saved when the suitcase was unwittingly moved away by someone. Hitler was shielded from the blast by the conference table, leaving him with minor injuries. Subsequently about 5, 000 people were arrested by the Gestapo and about 200, includingStauffenberg, were executed in connection with attempt, some on the very same day (which means that Himmler was involved and knew perfectly well about the coup).
A democratic coup would be a change of the government by the most aggressive (nationalistic) political party.
–artificial or actual government crisis
–mass anti-government propaganda
–organized “democratic” movement all over the country
–provoked mass protests (10, 000 participants and up) and civil disobedience actions
To provoke a mass anti-government meeting you have to bring to the place well-trained group of agitators (bring as many as you can), and they will inevitably attract an equal number of curious persons who seek adventures and emotions, as well as those unhappy with the government (unemployed people, young and old, are usually very supportive). Arrange transportation of the participants to take them to meeting places in private or public vehicles.
Design placards, flags and banners with different radical slogans or key words; prepare flyers, pamphlets (with instructions for the participants), posters and signs (to make the concentration more noticeable). It’s good if you place a surveillance team on the top floors of the nearby buildings – they will report any changes in the event; have also messengers to transmit your orders. Remember, if you clash with police and military and a participant(s) is being killed, the conflict inflames right away.
Your people can also infiltrate the spontaneous anti-government meeting and turn it into a mass radical demonstration with fights and incidents. Key agitators (with security attached to them) have to be dispersed and stand by placards, signs, lampposts; they have to avoid places of disturbances, once they have provoked them.
–the leader of the meeting must be protected by a ring of bodyguards (they protect him from police or help him to escape).
–government buildings must be “covered” by a blockade
“Democratic” nationalistic coups in Ukraine (2004 and 2014), so-called “orange revolution”. CIA gave the nationalists my instruction and followed them absolutely: acts of civil disobedience, strikes, sit-ins (in the central square), aggressive propaganda, mass demands to re-vote the presidential election, clashes with police.
A change of government and political and economic systems by political gangsters, usually fed, pushed, incited, and possibly funded and equipped by the secret services of another country. (Even the American Revolution would not have succeeded without French military advisors and financial support. ) Government buildings are blockaded, the government isolated, all communications and transportation systems captured, government media closed, new government formed.
–political and economic crisis
–mass anti-government propaganda (in the army too)-provoked mass protests and civil disobedience actions -terror and urban guerillas