"ДОСЬЕ КРЫЖАНОВСКОГО" : АГЕНТ КГБ ДОНАЛЬД ТРАМП (англ). 9. Михаил Крыжановский. Читать онлайн


development of program outlines
establishment of expected performance criteria and indications
information gathering
integration of ideological elements
assignment of executive responsibility
scheduling
analysis and experiment
experiment evaluation, examination of likely consequences
comparison of expected and actual performance levels
determination of costs
prognosis
strategic decision
B. Express planning: information interpretation, projects design, choice of a project, decision
C. Regular (math) model:
Negotiations planning (example): pressure, compromise, tricks, break.
Let’s evaluate "pressure": negative international reaction /-1/, breakdown /-1/, positive effect /+1/. Score: -2+1=-1 Conclusion: no pressure should be used.
D. Expertise model.
Government crisis (example): poor planning- wrong decisions- wrong actions- wrong execution- opposition activation- mass protests- coup
E. Scale model.
Risk factors: Risk levels:
Intenationalsanctions : medium
High inflation rise : medium to high
High unemployment : medium to high
Low public support level(low polls) : medium
Presidential decision making
1. Decision making is a multiple choice process.
2. Any decision involves political risk.
3. If you can’t make a decision, you need more information.
4. Be optimistic, but remain realistic.
5. Give yourself a deadline.
6. No brainstorming chaos.
7. There are two kinds of decisions: irreversible and reversible. Better know which kind you are facing.
Here’s the process:
a) Identify the problem
b) Analyze the problem — what are the facts?
c) Evaluate options – what are the pros and cons? what can go wrong?
d) Identify choices – which alternative is the best?
e) Implement plans – what action needs to be taken?
As the world #1 leader you have to know that this world is being ruled not by you but by 11 financial corporations : Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group Companies, FMR Corp, AXA, State Street Corp, JP Morgan Chase, Legal & General Group, Vanguard Group, UBS AG, Merrill Lynch & Co Inc.
Bonus
Psychological Modeling of a President (Strategic Intelligence Method)
Intelligence services worldwide watch political leaders during public appearances, trying to calculate their physical and mental health judging by their look and behavior. In the US they also evaluate the executives and staffers who surround the President at official meetings to calculate what’s going on in the White House.
They look at:
– a very detailed biography
– personal needs, interests, philosophy
– political views
– intelligence, will-power, character, abilities
– behavior in crisis situations
– compromising facts and possible methods of influence
– personal, political and big business VIP connections
– financial situation
– administration and team
– political opposition and President
– Congress
Domestic headache
You can’t separate domestic and foreign policies because they are married to the same ugly guy – the budget deficit.
Domestic policy rests on three legs: education, health and environment. Americans will never support reduced funding for education, Social Security and Medicare (Medicaid) cuts and weakened environmental-protection laws. But I strongly advise you – don’t bother trying to emulate Europe and the British Commonwealth by providing health care for all – the privately insured middle class (your voting majority) won’t stand for it. If you don’t believe me, go to the polls.
Now, are you a challenger in politics? If "yes, " strengthen your political positions in Washington, DC first, then start some reforms. Before you start a reform you have to win the information war with your opponents and get public support. A reform is always a venture; the process may start taking on momentum and you won’t be able to stop it. You had better continue old reforms using a new tactic because new reforms bring new problems, new enemies and new mistakes, and big economic mistakes bring you an economic crises.
Dealing with big business
1. Big organized money moves big political machines, big political machines move big lobbies, big lobbies move the President.
2. The President is an investment.
3. A group that rules the economy rules the White House.
4. A new political course comes not with a new President, but a change of big business’ global financial interests.
5. Follow 3 "golden rules":
– protect big investments
– help to promote
– don’t interfere
6. If the government doesn’t meet the needs of big business, it forms a new one of its own (something like a President’s Council). This usually happens when the President can’t provide financial stability and super-profits. Besides, big business has much more important foreign connections than the government.
7. Big business is:
a) money
b) political and economic control
8. Any political action gets an economic (big business) reaction.
In terms of partisan politics, Republicans are considered to be more sympathetic to big business interests while traditionally Democrats get electoral and financial support from organized labor. Forget about antitrust policy business has become more global and efforts to enforce antitrust policies have proven deficient and are threats to national security.
Managing the economy
1. Regulate spending, taxation, monetary policy and foreign trade whic has to be under strict political control – you have the right to propose legislation and veto any legislation you think incorrect. Keep in mind that Americans always insist on reducing government spending on foreign aid and space exploration, and they naturally hate any rise in taxes.
2. State and local governments, both through national associations like the US Conference of Mayors and Congress Members, always press the government to get more federal funds even at the expense of inflationary budget deficits.
3. Keep unemployment low and prices stable – these two factors are politically dangerous and failure here can bring a free-fall in approval ratings.
4. Take credit for economic growth, price stability and low unemployment even if you have nothing to do with it.
Still have problems? Try international initiatives.
There are four inevitable factors that will limit your control over the economy:
1) You must share power with Congress — you can’t levy taxes or appropriate money all by yourself;
2) The theoretical nature of the science of economics — no single economic theory has ever explained the behavior of the economy in the future;
3) The imprecision of economic information. Economic statistics and indicators do not measure the immediate conditions of the economy, but rather the conditions that prevailed between one and three months ago, depending on the particular economic statistics. Consequently, if you take action on the basis of incoming economic information you may be reacting to a problem that no longer exists or that is much worse than believed.
4) There are forces outside the reach of the federal government, like international factors (oil prices and foreign trade policies), state and local governments economic decisions and mistakes, big business decisions that affect employment, inflation, the trade deficit and public opinion — which is always against cutting social programs.
Budget deficit
A large budget deficit is a headache and has extremely negative effects on the economy:
1. It limits the government’s flexibility to fight a possible recession; that requires tax cuts and deficit spending, which would exacerbate the debt problem. Since tax revenues fall during a recession and unemployment insurance and welfare payments rise, the budget would be under further strain precisely when deficit spending would be needed to pull the economy up.
2. It reduces the amount of funds available for achieving the nation’s social and defense goals, because interest must be paid on the national debt.
3. It can threaten the economy by "crowding out" corporate and private borrowers from the credit market. Because the government must borrow heavily to finance its deficit, it competes with business and individuals to borrow funds. The increased competition forces interest rates higher, causing loans (including mortgages) to become more expensive. As a result, business can afford to purchase less plant and equipment to expand and modernize their operations and fewer consumers can afford to finance purchases of expensive items, such as houses and cars. The resulting reduction in demand threatens economic growth.
4. The US budget deficit has become so large that domestic savings no longer can provide enough capital to service the debt. Consequently, the government must borrow from foreign sources to make up the difference. This makes us dependent on foreign investors and raises the possibility of a "stabilization crisis, " which can occur if foreign investors lose confidence in the dollar and liquidate their US investments. Such a crisis could cause the dollar to plummet and interest and inflation to rapidly accelerate.
Crisis
Crisis means that your government as a system is exhausted and it’s unable to rule the nation and resources effectively in an extreme situation, including economic, natural catastrophes and war. A crisis has three stages – before the crisis, when the first signs appear; crisis development until culmination; catastrophe followed by impeachment. A crisis could be "programmed" at the very beginning of your term (mistakes in political and economic courses, inexperienced personnel, faulty planning) or it can appear later (too many mistakes, change of political environment, shifts in the economic or international situation). Crisis management includes pre-crisis management and handling of the situation. You must be ready not only for a government crisis but also for sudden military attack, mass riots and natural disasters.
International trade is an important component of national security. Our "friends" (NATO members, Saudi Arabia and Japan) favor a dollar (that is neither overvalued nor undervalued) and a healthy US economy with relatively full employment and low inflation rate. If the dollar is weak, the value of much of their international currency reserves declines and their goods are less competitive in the US market. If the dollar is too strong, their investment capital migrates to the US and the high competitiveness of their products in the US market threatens to provoke calls for trade restrictions. If unemployment in the US rises, the major market for their goods declines. If interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe or Japan, investment capital moves to our country. Consequently, foreign governments press the United States to keep the exchange value of the dollar from fluctuating widely and to hold interest rates steady.
Congress management
It’s much more simple that you think.
1. A Congressional session is a waste of federal time and money – you don’t need debates because Congressional staffers can do all the technical work and they can negotiate between themselves and balance positions. Senators and Congressmen don’t even have to come to Washington – they can vote from their local offices. So these people can spend their time helping thousands of constituents.
2. The President is dependent on Congressional cooperation to carry out the executive responsibilities of the Office because Congress has to authorize government programs, establish administrative agencies to implement the problems and funds to finance them.
ATTENTION : Executive Order might lower this dependence a little bit.
3. It’s important if President belongs to the party with a majority in the House and Senate. But if your party loses the majority in Congress, you have to work out new political strategy yourself.
4. President’s prestige (popular support or political capital) affects Congressional response to his politics.
5. Influence in Congress is courted only for long periods of service; a Senator with 30 years in office (like late Edward Kennedy) has considerably more power than a Senator in his first or second term. This causes the electorate to increasingly favor incumbents, as dislodging one’s Congressman or Senator after 30 years, even if the candidate or his party have become unpopular, can be viewed as hurting one’s district financially. It is often thought that a freshman would be less able to bring home federal money for his state or district.
6. For most Senators, the Senate is a platform for Presidential election campaign. Senators who openly express presidential ambitions are better able to gain media exposure and to establish careers as spokespersons for large national constituencies.
7. The first act of a newly elected Representative is to maneuver for election to the Senate. Why? First, they enjoy their position, power and money for six years non-stop. Second, there are only a hundred Senators and the publicity is much, much greater. But Representatives have a much better chance to be reelected.
8. Congress rejects two thirds of President’s proposals.
9. Senators are always looking for a BBD (bigger, better deal) and often shift from one committee to another (a good choice is those dealing with taxes, budget, energy, commerce).
10. Bills to benefit big business move smoothly. (Congress doesn’t like the poor — they don’t contribute, sorry). To gain majority support for big business legislation members have a special trick – log rolling, when factions combine efforts.
11. Senators don’t depend on the people – they depend on the media.
12. If a Senator is blocking the President’s proposal, he wants to get the President’s attention.
13. When Senators want to bury issues, they create committees.
14. The Senate is a small structure and personal relations between Senators are extremely important.
15. Senators have no incentive to study the details of most pieces of legislation and their decision is simplified by quickly checking how key colleagues have voted or intend to vote.
16. To have power a Senator has to object: much of the Senate work is done by unanimous consent and if you object you’ll be approached for sure by some influential people including other Senators, Secretaries, President’s aides or the President himself. They’ll try to press, blackmail or buy you – and that means you’ve got a piece of the power pie.
17. Senators avoid responsibility in economic policy.
18. Congress loves the military because military contracts are very lucrative for Congressional districts.
19. Senior Senators teach “newcomers” to vote against any reform which is a threat to their stability.
20. A Senator has real influence on legislation only if he has professional staff in charge of the projects.
21. Senators are afraid to vote against a defense budget increase because then they may be accused of a lack of patriotism.
22. Republicans and Democrats are not really enemies, here, though both sides are always looking for a “traitor” or “insider” in the other camp.
23. The President must have “insiders” in the Senate, because the other party could prepare secretly and then launch officially some investigation against you or the members of your Administration.
24. A legislator does exactly what his voters want him to do – stealing federal money from other states and districts, because for him the most important thing is numbers — polls in his state showing how many people approve his activity. His donors watch these numbers too and estimate their investment and the necessity to support re-election.
25. Every member of Congress has a so-called “split personality” – a “Hill style” while working on Capitol Hill and a “home style” while back in the state or district with the voters.
26. A Senator makes a decision only after thinking about what it means in terms of the re-election money that will come to him or to his opponents. His voting decisions depend on his party membership, constituency pressures, state and regional loyalty ideology, interest groups’ influence. His stubbornness comes from the fact that he does not want to be seen by his constituents as a “rubber stamp” for President’s decisions, especially when the bill in question benefits a Senator’s state. (And the hidden problem is – you want to move fast, especially during the first year while your personal popularity is high – but for the Congress speed is not important).
27. Sooner or later every member of Congress starts playing the “pork barrel” game. It’s nothing else but a diversion of federal funds to projects and places not out of national need but to enhance a member’s chances of re-election in his district (military projects, federal buildings, highways construction projects). So be ready for a “Christmas gift” when these fellows add pork barrel amendments to appropriations bills you are about to sign. They often wait until late in each session to pass critical spending bills, which narrows your range of possible responses because a veto may not be feasible if Congress has adjourned and the funds needed to run the federal government are contained in the legislation.
28. In Congress a small percentage of bills (about 500 out of 10, 000) actually become law because many bills are introduced merely to get favorable press. The strategy is especially effective if the legislation is “tied” to the headlines of the day (mass murders, natural disasters, ethnic riots etc. ).
29. In the Senate it’s easier for a minority to block the bill than for a majority to pass it: a 60-vote majority is needed to force a final vote on the bill, while only 41 votes are needed to continue debate and delay a vote.
30. The minority can hold the majority responsible as the party in power for whatever legislation does or does not emerge from the Senate. But both parties prefer to be the party in power in the Senate – all Senate legislation begins in the committees, whose membership and chairmanship are controlled by the party in power. Besides, each chairman has power in terms of controlling the committee budgets and deciding which hearings will be held and which legislation he will allow to be released to the Senate floor for a vote. He can also “lock up the bill” in committee until it dies. Perfect!
How to Control the Congress
The President can propose legislation, but Congress is not required to pass any of the administration’s bills. But you know already that Senators and Representatives need re-election more than anything else. So you can go with indirect influence through appeals to the public; this is a confrontation and direct challenge to Congressional authority. You can also enlist the support of interest groups or direct influence through favors and personal involvement in the legislative process. (Get public support for a proposal before it’s discussed with the Congress. )
And don’t hesitate to start a national debate — you have enough media attention for that.
You also have an independent tool, presidential power in the form of an executive order. You can give favors directly to members of Congress or to influential people in their constituency, or the favor may be of benefit to the constituency itself:
– appointments with the President and other high-ranking officials
– federal grants to recipients in the constituency, government contracts with local companies, the deposit of federal funds in banks, grants to local government and educational institutions
– support of projects (military installations, research and administrative facilities, public works such as buildings, dams and navigational improvements to rivers and harbors, etc. )
– recommendations for the US district court judges, attorneys, marshals, etc.
– campaign assistance (cash contributions from the party’s national committee invitations to bill-signing ceremonies, White House parties or to accompany President on trips
– bargaining and arm-twisting (pressure and threats to lose the projects).
Tools
1. The Congressional Relations Office. Used for:
– intense lobbying to form Congressional coalitions if the opposition controls one or both houses
– intelligence gathering (of policy preferences — centralized headcounts reveal the voting intentions on a particular bill and constituency concerns of individual members)
– representation
– creating “inner coalitions”
– coordination of executive branch legislative activity (monitoring and tracking bills, controlling departments’ staff appointments, collaborating with departments’ liaison offices)
Attention! Senators and Congressmen have to trust your people, who must keep their mouths shut, otherwise there will be no business. Anyway, watch these people — a Senator can call one of your assistants and if they hear “no, ” he will try to reach somebody else until he gets “Yes, the President will see you. ” Don’t let this happen – if it’s “no, ” it has to be everybody’s “no. ” There has to be no difference between personal views of your adviser and your official views.
2. Congressional Relations personnel of various executive Departments are a conduit. Talk to the Secretaries and explain to them that they have to give the Director of Congressional Relations their best people.
3. The White House interest groups liaison staff (office of public liaison)
4. Veto. Threatened with a veto, Senators often seek compromise.
Congress has its ways to undermine your vetoes or threats of vetoes. Because you can’t veto parts of a bill, they load up major legislation with amendments on a completely different subject (“riders”) that they know the President must accept. (Presidents who vetoed the most bills: Franklin Roosevelt – 635, Harry Truman – 250, Dwight Eisenhower – 181, Ronald Reagan – 78, Gerald Ford – 66).
5. Executive agreement. It permits the President to enter into open or secret agreements with a foreign government without any advice or consent of the Senate. There are two categories of executive agreements:
а) presidential agreements made solely on the basis of the constitutional authority of the President and under his sole power to faithfully execute the laws (or under his diplomatic or Commander-in-Chief powers). President needs to report secret agreement to the Foreign Relations Committees of the two houses no later than 60 days after such agreement has entered into force. Congress has no authority to disapprove it.
b) congressional-executive agreements, which cover all international agreements entered into under the combined authority of the President and Congress.
Finally, this is what you can do with a bill:
– sign the bill (the bill becomes a law)
– do nothing (the bill becomes a law in ten days)
– veto the bill (the bill does not become a law)
– pocket veto the bill (hold the bill until Congress is no longer in session, and the bill does not become a law)
Chapter 4. Foreign policy
“Golden rules”
1. International treaties have to be negotiated by diplomats prior to endorsement by presidents.
2. The information gathered by spies plays an increasingly role in diplomacy (arms-control treaties would be impossible without the power of reconnaissance satellites and agents to monitor compliance).
3. If you start war, it does not mean you failed diplomacy, it means military decision is much more profitable.
4. Make it clear to foreign leaders right away whether you are or you are not going to follow the previous President’s foreign policy (after consultations with big business). If you are not going to follow it, design a doctrine of your own (it’s a strategy that is the recognized approach or policy of the US government.
5. National security is your top priority and is the “king’s job” because actually you have no domestic political obstacles to your foreign policy (if it’s a question of war), so you are a chief decision maker there. (The CIA Director has to be excluded from from this process — you don’t need him. Besides, the CIA even today, no matter how hard I tried to educate the Agency, remains the worst of the worst and is not to be reformed — it has to be abolished. We have to transfer political intelligence functions to Pentagon. National security is designed to protect the United States and the vital interests (investments) of big business and to promote American values in a world of rivals, and the CIA, through all 60 years of its history, has proved to be absolutely unsuitable for the job).
6. Any country has to be involved in the sphere of our strategic interests if it has a strategic geographic position, significant sources of raw materials, a well-developed transportation system, or could be used as a military base. The strategic policy of any country rotates around the USA and if not — that means a certain President is waiting for greater incentives to come on board. Against target countries, don’t hesitate to use the strategies of pre-emptive war, post-war (post-crisis) reconstruction, and nation building (which means erasing national identity and supplanting it by liberal values).
With China’s growth, the Cold War is back with a vengeance, so we are back to secret deals based on spheres of influence — but that’s a temporary strategy.
7. You can’t always do what you want without help – you are dependent on other world leaders, Congressional positions and international public opinion. Ask the Senate to help you sometimes – believe me, they’ll be happy and proud to do so.
8. Create super-profitable conditions for big business by political penetration worldwide. Big money men start investing abroad when they find a safe environment — law and order. The more they invest the more political power they get (international corporations is the most important element of international system ; the other two are governments and non-governmental organizations).
9. Use big investors to ruin other national economies and governments by withdrawing finances when the economic situation is worsening. As soon as the country opens its financial markets, it increases its dependence on global economic processes that it cannot control; and a financial crisis can easily be staged. Conversely, other countries’ access to the US markets is a powerful economic and political tool.
10. Use my “controlled chaos strategy”. My idea to make the US economic and financial markets the most attractive for investors by provoking unstable situations in other countries and regions.
11. Send troops or work through military intelligence (not the CIA) to wherever you perceive a threat to the US investments.
12. Use pressure everywhere – strategic nuclear missiles are still the most powerful blackmail tool. Remember, if you are dealing with Russia or China, they will look not only for agreement, but for advantages.
13. Use “personal diplomacy” – phone calls to foreign leaders (every planned phone call has to go through the National Security Adviser and be well prepared, like a serious negotiation). Most important are phone calls to our allies — NATO members. Don’t forget to wish happy birthday to the leaders in person!
14. Use “informal diplomacy” – recruit politicians in other nations who might be able to give informal access to a country’s leadership. In some situations, such as between USA and China diplomacy is done through semi-formal channels using interlocutors such as academic members or think tanks. This occurs in situations when presidents wish to express intentions or to suggest methods of resolving a diplomatic situation, but do not wish to express a formal position.
15. Don’t hesitate to use summits as a tool, because:
–if you meet a foreign leader in person, you can reduce tensions and clarify national interests.
–personal relationship may lead to improved relations between nations.
–summits allow you to focus national attention on specific issues.
–presidents engaging in personal diplomacy are much more capable than career diplomatic bureaucrats of understanding the domestic policy consequences of diplomatic actions.
–summit negotiations can yield quick results, since discussions are between leaders with the power of decision rather than between representatives who must receive instructions, make reports and rely new proposals.
–diplomatic impasses may be overcome at summits by shifts in policy that only top leaders are empowered to make.
–if presidents desire an international forum for their diplomatic policies, a summit meeting can provide one.
–successful summits can enhance the image of the President and the United States
16. If you’re ready to fight for national interests, forget about human rights — you can always blame infractions on the other side.
17. Isolation is the greatest enemy to information.
18. There’s no sense in applying sanctions if big business isn’t interested.
19. Economic and hence, political progress for any country affects the USA through economic competition that threatens the market and jobs.
20. Any initiative is risky if it’s about unstable region, but you lose popularity fast if you are perceived as indecisive or weak in foreign policy.
21. Any trip abroad has to convey a strong message.
22. Direct military intrusion indicates weakness in your foreign policy. If it’s inescapable, involve as many allies as you can.
23. Don’t touch our military bases abroad!
24. Big debts open markets. No matter what, open national markets world-wide for American big business and remember – the markets, not Presidents, rule the world.
25. Tie your allies to international economic projects and make them pay most of the expenses.
26. Never talk about money in public — talk about democracy, human rights, liberal values and disarmament – people like it.
27. Move forward – transform Americans’ national and patriotic feelings into nationalistic ones (follow the French model) to get total support of your policy (see “Mind Control”).
28. Don’t pay too much attention to the CIA – all they have to do is to support you with appropriate information to justify your strategic political decisions – and nothing else.
29. Ignore the UN – Secretary General has no real power, but you can take advantage of such a thing as the UN peace-keeping if it corresponds with your interests – the US economic costs could be minimized. Besides, UN peacekeeping can promote a spirit of international accountability in solving a certain regional problem. Don’t forget to explain your strategy to the Congress – they don’t like the UN either. On the other hand, you have to manage an international crisis, if it threatens our national interests (start with strategic planning, check national security system for the adequate response, use propaganda to get domestic and international support, consult with big business and allies, start crisis negotiations if possible, use diplomacy (see below) and force or threat of force).
30. To reach global leadership you must have enough resources, national support and a well-calculated strategy (see also “Strategic planning”). As you already know, the US budget is financed by foreign lending. When the dollar goes down in foreign exchange markets, it’s supported by foreign central banks and you’re OK as long as Japan, Saudi Arabia and Germany have an interest in propping up the American economy and do not raise the price for financing America’s debt. The worst situation would be to lose support both at home and abroad
Decision making
– assessment of the international and domestic political environment
– goal setting. We have multiple foreign policy goals, and we must determine which goal is effected by the international and domestic political environment
– determination of policy options
– decision making action
– implementation of chosen policy option
World Domination
Securing the top position requires :
– economic domination
– military power – pre-emptive war or blackmail by war (seeking domination requires an inevitable increase in the military budget)
– a cultural and media invasion
– special operations to influence or neutralize leaders with negative attitude
Modern mechanism of world domination
1. If the country does not accept American rules of the game, we start a "velvet" or "colored revolution.
2. We replace the government by pro-American regime.
3. If the government resists, we start the US and NATO military operation and help the anti-government organizations to overthrow the government.
Strategies used
1. Destabilization strategy based on terrorism – you kill political leaders and civil population, blow up government buildings and blame the opposition.
2. Stabilization strategy – first, "terrorists" destabilize the situation in the country and then the US and NATO troops come to "stabilize′ it.
3. "New order" or a "controlled chaos” strategy – American “new world order” to be established through the international chaos, permanent wars, civil wars and revolutions.
My definition :
"Controlled chaos” strategy –
geopolitical re-division of the world by provoking riots, revolutions, civil wars and overthrowing regimes in independent from USA sovereign states to keep the U. S. world hegemony. Political, national, religious and social conflicts in target countries have to be permanent. The strategy is being covered by a "struggle against international terrorism". The operation is preceded by information war against the target regime and backed by NATO forces if necessary.
Most important targets of the 21st century – Russia and China. That’s the reason we occupy Afghanistan. We have to circle China with our military bases in Central Asia.
4. Global energy control strategy – the US control of major oil regions and gas fields.
To keep America on top, we would have to prevent cooperation and coalitions between: China and Africa; Shi’ia and Sunni Muslims; Germany and France; Venezuela and Cuba. Their trade agreements and alliances will change the geopolitical situation.
In most important world regions keep the balance by supporting the country which follows the leader:
In Europe – support Britain to balance Germany. You rule Europe if you rule the Persian Gulf. You rule the world if you rule Europe, and that’s why you have to keep NATO by all means to block the military independence of Europe (Germany).
In East Asia – support Japan, Russia and Taiwan to balance China.
In South Asia support Pakistan to balance India.
In Latin America – support Argentina to balance Brazil.
Diplomacy secrets
1. Use secret visits (send the National Security Adviser) if the international problem is complex and important – in this way you don’t depend on media and public opinion. Afterwards you can talk, if it was a success.
2. If presidents like to drink with each other, they are ready to deal with each other.
3. Avoid negotiating on major issues at the end of the day, when your energy is low.
4. Negotiate smart, watch your initiatives. The more you tell about your position, the less your partner will tell you about himself, and the higher price you’ll pay. Diplomacy is all about money and the essence of any negotiations is the price range.
5. Any information should be exchanged as a part of a compromise and not merely given away.
6. Always talk less than necessary. Concentrate on facts and never tell other person about feelings (or your family and medical problems). Don’t interrupt others, try to understand what they really want and if they try to manipulate you. Also, resist giving in to interruptions until you have completed your thoughts – “Just a moment, I haven’t finished”. Use Taleyran approximation – if it’s difficult for you to speak up, try to make just one diplomatic statement. If they press you, insist on moving this questions to experts. And use indirect language such as “It looks like” or “You see situation from a very special angle”.
7. No negative emotions, they indicate weak nerves. Never take things personally.
8. Stop self-limiting behaviors, such as smiling too much, nodding too much, tilting your head or dropping your eyes in response to other person’s gaze. Speak normal conversational volume, don’t scream and don’t whisper, either, as you won’t be taken seriously.
9. Take a problem-solving approach to conflict, and try to see the other person as your collaborator rather than your opposition. You’d better postpone negotiations than allow them to break down.
10. Fix all questions, don’t be in a rush to answer any of them.
11. The slower you talk, the more confident you are.
12. Never ask straight questions, it’s a primitive approach.
13. It’s important to know what questions and when to ask.
Start with an “invitation” question that does not need a definite answer but opens up the discussion, like: “No matter what reporters say, we’ll start negotiating for arms control. ” Proceed with “intelligence gathering” questions, like: “Are you going to abide by our last agreement on the withdrawal of military forces or do we have other options? ” Go to “expertise” questions, like: “It’s 500 missiles, right? ”
There’s a difference between expertise and straight questions – straight question are like: “Will you sign the treaty? ” and these have to be avoided because you’ll get no straight answer right away. Finish with a closing question, like: “I think that’s what we intend to sign? Next time we can start from here. ” Or you can press your partner: “Let’s not lose this last opportunity, eh? ”
14. Explain your negative attitude in a smart way: give half the information and continue, depending on your partner’s reaction. If you can’t accept his proposal, tell him that the experts may look into it again and come to agreement. If your partner is not a complete idiot he’ll understand his proposal is unacceptable (because the experts have already done all they could). But if he is an idiot, he’ll agree to “kill” his proposals by passing them to the experts.
15. You start to lose momentum if you start to defend yourself. Stop (postpone) negotiations the moment you start to lose or you could end up in a total failure and that could be used by opposition back home.
16. If you bring ideology – try to win. If you bring national interests, try to find compromise. Be flexible – that’s strength, not weakness.
17. Don’t make aggressive statements for the media, no matter what.
18. Respect is half a victory, but you usually win when your partner is scared. Avoid open confrontation and respond to personal attacks with humor.
19. Watch the military experts – they are always ready to “push” you. No arms agreement can win ratification without backing from Joint Chiefs, because Congress needs and trusts their expertise, and their disapproval is a strong tool against you in case you ignore their advice. So, think three times before you appoint Joint Chiefs.
20. Take negotiations on the trade deficit very seriously – they often take you nowhere and have zero results as your partner wants you to change your attitude to him completely as well as your international economic policy, while you expect the same favor from him. You can influence one partner but you can’t very easily influence the international system.
21. After you come back home do some positive advertising through the media – in such a way you influence other presidents and future negotiations. If the negotiations resulted in a treaty, “sell” it to the Senate for approval.
22. Negotiation no-nos:
– don’t be confused if your partner threatens you – that means he needs your cooperation. Don’t enter into negotiation right away with high demands.
– don’t touch the toughest issues first. Don’t assume – that’s a sign of weakness.
– don’t hesitate to pause or take a break.
– never say “no” to your partner’s ideas – rather, pack them up in one “package” with your proposals.
Diplomatic tricks
Tricks in diplomacy are usually used to distract your hard working team, shift the emphasis of the negotiation in order to shape the deal on terms of your adversary or manipulate your team into closing negotiation and accept terms you don’t really like. And the tricks are:





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© 12.06.2018 Михаил Крыжановский
Свидетельство о публикации: izba-2018-2294837

Рубрика произведения: Разное -> Политика












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